Comments, Events, News

Left ankle @ 17 Dec. 2009

Yesterday, the leader of the german “Sauerland Gruppe” gave a full account of the groups original plans to commit terror attacks against US targets in germany. The entire group had been arrested in September 2007 after weeks of observation by the german counterterror agency (”Verfassungsschutz”) who had been tipped off by US Intelligence . They have been held in a high security prison ever since, while the prosecution was trying to piece together enough evidence for a case against the group. An undertaking that according to past media reports on the issue, was not going well at all since the group had been arrested well BEFORE any substantial evidence could be found by the police (i.e. a functional bomb & detailed plans about how to use it). As a consequence, the prosecution had enormous trouble in bringing the case forward, due to a lack of hard evidence.

In that regard, Mr. Gelowicz, the german born leader of the group is doing himself and especially the german justice system a huge favour by agreeing to make his statement, because had he not done so, the investigations would have dragged on for years without any progress, thereby showing the essential legal difficulties of terror “PREVENTION” and in particular the weakness of the german justice system in that regard.

The result is a win-win situaiton. Mr. Gelowicz and his mates will have to spend a few years in prision (as opposed to potentially indefinite imprisonment in legal limbo, i.e. a quasi german Guantanamo) and the prosection will be able to conclude the case, saving face.

A couple of months back, germans have approved legislation that will now make it easier to put terror suspects on trial. While this new piece of legislation would have prevented the legal troubles the prosecution is facing right now with the Sauerland case by weakening the preconditions necessary for prosecution of terror suspects, it is unfortunatley one more initiative to enabling and enhancing state control over areas of german citizens private life that should neither be monitored nor controlled! German State 1: Civil Liberties: 0.

Charts for Sugar#11 have been added, showing strong seasonality, as most agricultural commodities do.

Charts for Gold (GC) and Cotton (CT) have been added. An important correlation table (daily price returns) has also been included for a variety of commodities.

Recent high level reshuffling in the northkorean National Defense Committee has left General O Kuk-Ryol in the position of Deputy Chairman. Is he being rewarded for both his loyalty to the “Dear Leader” and his successes in hoarding foreign currency through black-market trading in Opium and counterfeit US currency ?

That kind of success may not be replicable in the future, due to continuing and projected USD weakness which may make the counterfeiting process too costly and due to an oversupply of opium in the global marketplace that will have prices tumble. (Opium production in Afghanistan is still soaring. The country provides 90% of the total estimated annual global opium supply)

Some charts for Soybeans (S), Palladium (PA) and Light crude (CL).  Some show a clear seasonal pattern.

und schwubs haben wir ein neues gesetzt das den besuch von “terrorcamps” strafbar macht und das verbreiten von anleitungen zum bombenbau unter strafe stellt. und warum haben wir es ? ganz einfach. die verurteilungen ganz besonders der sauerlaender gruppe kommt wohl nicht so voran wie man sich das einmal im september 2007, kurz nach deren verfruehter und fast verpatzter festnahme gewuenscht hatte. es gab und gibt einfach nicht genug handfeste beweise die unzweifelhaft belegen dass die sauerlaender auch wirklich einen anschlag durchfuehren wollten. und nachdem die ermittlungsbehoerden nun krampfhaft und schon fast zwei jahre lang jeden kieselstein umdrehen um mehr belastendes material zu finden, ohne jeden erfolg, droht die sauerland inhaftierung und deren prozessaufarbeitung eher su einem deutschen guantanamo mutieren als zu einem normalen strafprozess. denn nach der damals gueltigen gesetzeslage kann die gruppe bei bestem willen nicht verurteilt werden. man stelle sich nun vor die sauerlaender wuerden wieder freigelassen werden (was eignetlich schon haette geschehen muessen)….eine blamage ohne gleichen fuer den innenminister. eine katastrophe fuer seine partei und ganz besonders fuer die regierung. nein,nein, soetwas darf nicht sein. da muss also ganz flugs nachgebessert werden. mit sinnlos verschaerfter gesetzgebung die man zwar so nicht rueckwirkend auf die sauerlaender anwenden kann (oder doch?), die aber in zukunft solche blamagen von vornherein verhinder soll weil sie die schwelle fuer eine verurteilung im rahmen von terrorpraevention dramatisch herabsetzt. na wunderbar. es wird immer besser. ich sehe schon den tag voraus an dem steuerfluechtlinge als terroristen bezeichnet werden weil sie dem staat einen einkommensverlust zufuegen der nicht nur straftbar ist sonder auch die grundfesten der inneren sicherheit und nationalen stabilitaet gefaehrdet ….

A collapse of the northkorean state may not be the option favoured by the governments of Southkorea, China or Russia since they all have a border with the DPRK and therefore would be burdened by massive refugee flows from the north, or they would, like Japan and Southkorea, suffer economically by having to bare the enormous costs resulting from a reunification, if it ever came to that. Not a good thing in the currently unstable economic climate.

But for the people of northkorea a regime collapse would be the best thing to happen. Although painful in the beginning, it would finally remove a regime that is probably the most paranoid, corrupt, manipulative and economically inept of the 21st century.

The US, despite strong rethoric and the usual statements of condemnation will do nothing to accelerate the (hopefully natural) process of implosion/collapse already onging in Northkorea, because it does and will  continue to respect the views of its asian allies Southkorea and Japan on this matter.  We can therefore only hope that domestic forces at work in Northkorea will soon cause a spontaneous change of leadership by disrupting the “managed succession” plans of the “Dear Leader”. This may take some more time though.

It is being reported that the northkorean leadership has conducted a nuclear test in the mountainous area around Kilju. It  took place on 25. May around 9:50 local time and apparently registered on seismographs with a strength of 4.5 on the richter scale, comparable to a small earthquake. Whether this was in fact a nuclear bomb test cannot be established until evidence of radiation is found. The last test that northkorea conducted in 2006 did not produce conclusive evidence in that regard.

In reaction, the southkorean KOSPI share index went down 4%, and the Won dropped more than 1% against the dollar.

I suspect that the northkorean leadership may also soon make a very public comment on the two captured american journalists,  well in synch with the international outrage about the nuclear test. This would be a very clear signal to the US: “We have two hostages and we are dangerous …. you better start talking to us”.

The two american journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee who were detained by northkorean borderpolice in march after illegally crossing the chinese-northkorean border will appear before a northkorean court sometime in mid june, according to official northkorean news sources.

The available information suggests that these two were anything but spies and anything but careful.

What remains to be seen is how pyongyang uses them and their trial for its own purposes in the negotiations with the south and most of all with the US.

One thing is clear. They are a big bargaining chip for the northkoreans and that is why our northamerican friends have been very very quiet about this issue.

As I have grown up in a country that was once split by a border considered the quintessential bastion between capitalism and communism, I personally know that the police/military patrolling borders of that kind have no sense of humour and are amongst the most paranoid and trigger-happy people you can find. That kind of personal experience would have benefited the two americans who were, in my opinion, just naive in thinking that they could mess around with northkorean border security officials.

“The UN system deals with crisis through improvisation. The UN recruitment process does not necessarily respect the criteria of competence and experience….Even less regard is given to the criteria of commitment.”

Mohamed Sahnoun (Algerian Diplomat, UN Somalia)

According to the currently available knowledge about the “swine flu” or A/H1N1 flu variant recently discovered in Mexico, it CANNOT be inferred that this particular flu is more virulent or more deadly than some of the usual flu variants that spread throughout the globe every year. In countries like germany for example, the common flu virus and its variations (of which A/H1N1 is just one) kill between 10.000 - 30.000 individuals every year, so even the worst known variant can kill more than 80 people a day (on average) in germany, but will never make it into the headlines, because people have gotten used to it.  To day, germany has seen one confirmed infection with swine flu. The likelihood of actually dying from that infection cannot yet be established exactly, but if it were a common flu it would probably be considerably less than 0.1%, meaning 1 out of 1000 infected persons will die on average over all agegroups. So the general fiear is that this swine flu could have a mortality rate vastly superior of that of the common flu. But nobody knows that yet and it cannot be inferred from the reports received to date, because the total number of reported and confirmed deaths is just too small, even in Mexico. In addition, the total number of reported infections doesn’t tell the scientists anything about the actual mortality. So everyone is in a grey zone.  Scientists and governments.

So what is the current hype all about ? Why the panic ? Mostly overanxious govt.  and UN health officials seem to be nurturing it.

In addition, not a single pig has been reported as infected with the “swine” flu, which is why there is no reason at all to ban import/export or consumption of pig meat.

And while our muslim believers may see the “swine flu” as some kind of divine punishment for pig-eating disbelievers, the author of these lines is convinced that one of probably several resaons why this flu outbreak is so overhyped is that it provides (at last) a suitable and global distraction from the bad news about the current state of the worlds economy and it finally justifies the existence of the expensive WHO pandemic preparedness programme that has been out of work for a couple of years now since the end of the Avian-flu crisis.

Conclusion: I am going to have pork for lunch and I am certainly not going to wear that useless mask. And as usual, I will feel slightly uneasy if my neighbour starts coughing violently. However, that is nothing extraordinary and has nothing to do with the current swine flu hype!

Final remark:  wouldn’t it be quite  embarrassing for an islamic state (i.e. Afganistan, Iran, Saudia Arabia, etc.) to have to report confirmed cases of “swine” flu ? It may soon happen, since the flu has nothing to do with pig-to-human transmission anymore but is all human-to-human now. But then again Afghanistan for example has other more pressing problems it should worry about. A couple of thousands of deaths more by some ominous flu don’t event make it to the governments weekly report, let alone to the media. And the implied embarassment would only contribute to an islamic government wanting to sweep it under an (afghan?) carpet.

die grippe hat das schwein verlassen
um sich den menschen nun zu fassen

das schwein war wohl auf lange sicht
der grippe nicht genug, man spricht.

der mensch ist, wie ja schon bekannt
ganz innig mit dem schwein verwandt

das sagen nicht nur biologen
auch ehefrauen, wenn betrogen,

die kommen zu demselben schluss
weswegen das ja stimmen muss.

die grippe also, unverdrossen
hat sich den mensch als markt erschlossen.

und expandiert bald munter weiter.
na das wird heiter …..

According to reports published through AP, Northkoreas leader has given his youngest son Kim Jong-Un (26) a position in the northkorean National Defense Committee, one of many bodies that Kim Jong-Il chairs. This is widely interpreted as another step towards a “managed succession” from father to son. However, in the past there have been other such moves, confusing international observers because they were focused not on his youngest but his second youngest son. Even the oldest, Kim Jong-Nam was being traded as the favoured successor at one point. Therefore this piece of news should be treated “Cum granum salis”.

Enough on Northkorea. I will only continue to write comments on news from the north if the peninsula reunites or if it is about to go to war with some other nation (which is as likely as me winning the lottery prize of 1 million Euros in 6 out of 49)

So here we have it again. Todays (western and independent) media hype around northkoreas belligerent attitude in reaction to US and Southkorean military  “exercises” close to its coastal waters couldn’t be more welcome to the Kim Jong-Il regime. In fact, it is exactly the kind of “international support” the regime needs in order to stay relevant and show it’s people that it is doing the right thing: Protecting the northkorean people from “evil southkorean, japanese and american warmongers”. Just have a look at my last post on this for an explanation.

In a situation driven by military rethoric and most of all by nuclear military interests (western and northkorean), civilians can only lose. While it is no wonder that smart and insightful behaviour (which in this case would have to be strictly low profile) cannot be expected from any general on either side of this dispute, one still wishes for a little less mind-numbing sabre rattling.

Very soon the current leader of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North Korea) is expected to give an unambiguous signal with regard to his favoured successor.  While the many analysts who have been following the DPRKs behaviour from afar or from within are placing their bets on either Kim Jong-Il’s youngest son Kim Jong-Un (alternative spelling: Kim Jong-Woon)

kim jong-un at age 11 (1994)

or his oldest son Kim Jong-Nam, there seems to be agreement on the fact that son Nr.2 Kim Jong-Cheol (alternative spelling: Kim Jong-Chul) is out of the race, also because his supposedly pro-western inclinations. Reports indicate that even Jang Seong-Taek (62) (alternative spelling: Chang Sung-Taek), Kim Jong-Ils brother-in-law, head of the powerful administration and guidance department and therefore also the de-facto head of the northkorean intelligence community, has been maneuvering in order to be able to rapidly switch his loyalties between either of the two frontrunners for the succession.

Busstop Pyongyang City

An announcement or at least a clear signal is expected during the events surrounding the election of  northkoreas supreme peoples assembly this Sunday March 8. It has also been speculated that the preparations for a satellite launch that would be using/testing advanced long range missile technology were scheduled to coincide with the elections and the possible leadership succession announcement, in order to give it more weight!!

We shall see what happens tomorrow. Find some more facts on Kim Jong-Il and his three sons here.

Empty road , Ryugyong hotel on horizon, weekend, Pyongyang City

Northkoreas often contradictory and apparently inconsistent wobbling between rational behaviour and serious war talk is what makes many people around the globe think that the dear leader and his administration are mad. They couldn’t be further from the truth.

There is a very simple reason why the north of the korean peninsula needs to show off its advanced technical, military and nuclear capabilites every once in a while. And the primary reason is not kim jong-il wanting to impress the west and the south with its military or technological might. The main reason is that these displays of power are needed to first and foremost keep the domestic population believing that northkorea, as a nation, is doing something to counter the (perceived) constant threat from almost every other nation on this planet and that only the “dear leader”, his government and it’s military can efficiently protect the northkoreans from the evil, barbaric hordes towards the south of their great nation. obviously this external threat is greatly exaggerated by all channels of the northkorean state media, since it very much contributes to stabilizing the power of the current regime.

It is a well known fact to historians that there is no better unifying force for a nation than a real or perceived external threat scenario.  A government doesn’t have to be efficient, accountable or reliable. It can be chaotic, irresponsible and corrupt as long as it can bring the message across that it is the only one with the capability to protect the country against an evil enemy that may or may not exist.

Therefore asking kim jong-il to give up the countries nuclear capabilities or to surrender its arsenal of long range missiles and to stop the occasional demonstrations of power where these assets are used is the same as asking him to tell his people that he is no longer able to protect them and will therefore step down immediately. No other leader in the world would give in to that kind of demand if it was made from an outsider. And while the northkorean method for staying in power may not be appropriate, just, or people friendly, the same can be said of many other current and past autocratic leaders around the globe. Some are just better at hiding their true motives behind a smokescreen of carefully planned distractions.

As a consequence nothing will be gained from repeated and bold statements of western nations who demand the unconditional de-nuclearization of the northern korean peninsula. Smarter tactics are needed here and hopefully Mrs. Clinton has already taken steps towards implementing them.

For example: Every public statement of condemnation (by a western power) about the use of advanced missile launch technology or the attempted use of nuclear technology for non-civilian purposes and in reaction to a northkorean test or “threat”, will be spun back to the norhtkorean people through their state-media, portraying that very same statement as a threat against the sovereignty of the northkorean nation. This will then strenghten(!) rather than weaken the power of the kim jong-il regime for the reasons explained above! So maybe it is not always a good idea for western powers and their asian allies to immediately and loudly voice concerns over northkorean actions. Maybe it is a better idea to sit back and be quiet about it! (But I am sure there are plenty of smart people in overseas foreign affairs departments who have thought of this before …. well, at least I hope there are)

When the iranian vice president calls Mr. Karzai to offer his support in infrastructure projects throughout western Afghanistan, three months ahead of Karzai’s end-of-term and six months ahead of Afghan elections, this is a clear sign that Iran is extending a hand of friendship in support of the Karzai government when the US and the majority of other NATO member governments are distancing themselves from the current afghan president. …. good old cold-war-style power haggling via proxy (Afghanistan). Or is there any other way to interpret the following two newsitems ?

Karzai Administration wins endorsement from Iran (February 23) Iran will support the Afghan government and boost mutual economic ties,…..

Iran plans railway line with Tajikistan through Afghanistan
(Bakhtar News) February 22 - Iranian vice president Pervez Daudi said his country was planning to establish a railway line, connecting Tajikistan to Iran via two Afghan provinces.

Daudi who called on President Hamid Karzai at his office on Thursday discussed with him bilateral economic, political and cultural ties during his official visit to Kabul, the Karzais office said. President Karzai and vice president Daudi agreed to promote trade relations between the two neighbors. A statement issued here from the Presidents office said that the private sector in Iran was willing to construct roads, railway lines and supply of power and giving boost to agriculture sector of Afghanistan. Daudi showed his keen interest in laying the railway track that will connect Khawaf city of Iran to western Herat and Maimana provinces in Afghanistan with the neighboring Tajikistan. President Karzai on this occasion stressed the need for strengthening trade ties between the two countries, the statement added. Both the leaders also exchanged their views about the ongoing developmental projects in the country initiated by Iran.

Excellent. Read it!

Sudden change in northkorea

http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/North_Korea_CSR42.pdf

And,I believe,even Mrs.Clinton’s advisors have read (or written?) this report.